In Arizona’s two largest counties, fewer than 15% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote

The midterm elections are less than a year away, and Arizona will have important races for U.S. Senate, Governor, and members of Congress, to name a few.  Young people will likely play a key role in these elections, so long as they are registered to vote. 

The Civics Center has found, however, that fewer than 15% of 18-year-old residents of Arizona’s most populous counties, Maricopa County and Pima County, have registered to vote. The Civics Center determined this by comparing recently obtained voter files from Maricopa and Pima Counties with U.S. Census age and population data for these counties. 

Young people who are registered to vote have turned out to vote at high rates in recent statewide elections. Census records show that in the 2020 presidential election, 88% of registered Arizonans ages 18-24 cast ballots. That was 327,000 voters, and the margin of victory was just 10,457 votes in the Arizona presidential election. 

In the 2018 midterms, 72% of Arizona 18- to 24-year-olds who were registered voted.  That was 217,000 voters, and the winning Arizona candidate for U.S. Senate won by approximately 60,000 votes.  

Yet since the 2020 election, few 18-year-olds in Arizona’s two largest counties have registered to vote. The Civics Center found that in Pima County just 9% of 18-year-old citizens* had registered to vote. Maricopa fared somewhat better with 14% of 18-year-old citizens registered to vote. The most recent voter file provided by Pima County was from August 2021, while Maricopa’s was from October, which may help explain the higher percentage in Maricopa. 

The low registration rates observed in the voter files reflects nine months of opportunity to register for Pima County and nearly a full year for Maricopa County. Under Arizona law, 16- and 17-year-old citizen residents who will turn 18 by election day 2022 are old enough to register to vote now. This group of residents became eligible to register after the November 2020 election. 

The Civics Center also evaluated school districts in Maricopa and Pima counties and found:

• In Pima County, fewer than 10% of 18-year-olds who live in its two largest school districts, Tucson and Amphitheater Unified, were registered as of mid-August 2021. 

• In Maricopa County’s two largest school districts, 11% of 18-year-old residents living in Phoenix Unified School District and 17% of 18-year-old residents living in Mesa Unified School District were registered to vote as of late October 2021.

• Smaller school districts achieved the highest percentage of registration among 18-year-olds. In the Gila Bend and Queen Creek Unified districts in Maricopa County, more than 20% of 18-year-old residents were registered to vote, and in Tanque Verde and Vail Unified districts in Pima County, more than 15% of 18-year-old residents were registered to vote.  

The COVID-19 pandemic has likely played a role in limiting voter registration in the year since the 2020 election. Lack of effective, nonpartisan, comprehensive implementation programs by the state and local school districts is also a likely factor. 

Young people are likely to be underrepresented in the 2022 midterms absent an increase in resources directed to registering new 18-year-olds.  Despite high turnout rates for registered youth in 2020 and 2018, the turnout rate when compared to the state’s entire population of citizens ages 18-24 was substantially lower, 52% in the presidential election, and 35% in the midterm. These low youth citizen turnout rates were driven largely by low rates of registration (59% in 2020 and 49% in 2018).

Approximately 90,000 Arizona citizens turn 18 every year in the state, and approximately 180,000 celebrated their 18th birthday between the presidential election in 2020 and the 2022 midterm elections. 

The best way to get young people to register to vote is to ask them to register and to show them how to do it. Political campaigns often struggle to encourage youth voter turnout, largely because young people who are not registered are, by definition, not in the voter file. Community involvement matters. Young people, parents, schools, and public officials can all play a role in helping young people understand the importance of voter registration and helping them take the first step to political participation.

Future Voter Scorecard for Maricopa County, AZ (as of October 2021)

Sources: US Census; Maricopa County Voter File as of October 2021

Future Voter Scorecard for Pima County, AZ (as of August 2021)

Sources: US Census; Pima County Voter File as of August 2021

To learn more about how you can help improve youth voter registration, visit https://thecivicscenter.org/volunteer.

*The Arizona file provides birth years, but not precise dates of birth. Our analysis relies on registered voters born in 2003 to estimate the number of 18-year-olds.

Laura W. Brill is the founder and Executive Director of The Civics Center. James F. Wenz, Associate Director of The Civics Center, and Asteris Dougalis, a student at Northwestern University, provided significant research assistance for this effort.