With Midterms Just Weeks Away, New Hampshire Lags in Registering 18-year-olds to Vote

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Oct 24

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Opportunities To Organize Young Voters Can Make a Critical Impact

Only 13.2% of 18-year-olds in New Hampshire are registered to vote, far lower than rates in other parts of the country.
Lebanon and Portsmouth have the highest percentage of 18-year-olds registered to vote while Manchester and Keene have the lowest percentage.
There is enormous opportunity for progress. While the percentage of 18-year-olds registered to vote statewide remains low, it has already increased from 8.5% in June 2022 to 13.2% in September 2022; a 56% increase. This tracks with other increases in voter registration, as Election Day approaches.
New Hampshire offers same-day registration on Election Day, offering an opportunity to drive up registration and turnout for the youngest voters.

Percentage of Registered US voters aged 18-24 who voted versus percentage of registered voters aged 18-24

When young people are registered, they vote. The general election is just weeks away, and young people in New Hampshire and nationwide have an opportunity to make an impact on elections for statewide office, congressional seats, as well as state legislative and local offices. Based on U.S. Census data, when young people are registered, they show up to vote.

Nationwide, in every presidential election from 2004 to 2020, more than 75% of registered 18- to 24- year-olds voted. In the 2018 midterms, 66% of youth (ages 18-24) nationwide who were registered to vote turned out.

The CHALLENGE is to register them.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

When young people are registered, they vote.

As of mid-September 2022, however, only 13.2% of 18-year-olds statewide in New Hampshire were registered to vote. Among the state’s 10 most populous municipalities, only one (Lebanon) has a registration rate for 18-year-olds of 20% or above. Three out of ten (Rochester, Manchester and Keene ) have 18-year-old voter registration rates below 10%.

New Hampshire’s same-day registration law offers parents, educators, community leaders, and students themselves a critical opportunity to lift youth registration and turnout.

Election Day is November 8, and voter registration efforts between now and then can have a dramatic impact on turnout in the midterms in many states, including New Hampshire. Strong local leadership, community organizing, increased awareness of registration opportunities and same day voter registration all can make a significant difference.

With an early presidential primary in 2024 and access to candidates and campaigns over the next two years, New Hampshire also has many opportunities to begin now on efforts that make an impact on the 2024 election.

OUR REPORT:

The Civics Center is a national, nonpartisan organization focused on high school voter registration. This research report is based on voter registration data obtained from the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office and age-based population data from the American Community Survey, an annual demographic survey conducted by the U.S. Census bureau.

The research focuses on the registration rates for 18-year-olds in the 10 most populous municipalities in New Hampshire. These municipalities are Derry, Lebanon, Laconia, Dover, Nashua, Portsmouth, Rochester, Manchester, Concord, and Keene. These municipalities exhibit significant differences in registration rates. In Lebanon, the municipality with the highest rate of those on which we focused, the registration rate for 18-year-olds is 20.2%. In Keene, it is just 3.8%.

There is no one solution to boost these rates. As set forth below, however, significant opportunities exist for youth and communities to organize to improve youth voter registration, starting in high school.

This is the first in a series of three reports The Civics Center will issue for the 2022-2023 school year. This initial report provides previously unrevealed hyperlocal, municipality-based data about the number and percentage of 18-year-olds who are registered to vote in New Hampshire. The purpose of this report is not to provide a comprehensive survey of local resources and opportunities. Rather, it is to raise awareness, to provide a baseline for measuring progress, to describe data and methodological methods and challenges, and to catalyze collective action. Our later reports will provide more discussion of state and local resources and opportunities, highlight successful programs and leaders and efforts, and provide programmatic and policy recommendations for enabling the state’s youngest voters to achieve full participation.

KEY FINDINGS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Statewide, only 13.2% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote (2,261 registered voters out of an estimated population of 17,145 18-year-olds).

As of mid-June 2022 only 8.5% of 18-year-olds statewide were registered (1,454 registered 18-year-olds). The change between June and September 2022 represents a 56% increase (a 4.7 percentage point increase).

Highest rates:

Among the 10 most populous municipalities, Lebanon had the highest percentage of registered 18-year-olds, at 20.2%, and Portsmouth, with 19.4% of 18-year-olds registered, came in second.

Most populous municipalities:

In Manchester, the most populous municipality in the state, only 5.5% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote (67 registered voters out of an estimated population of 1,223 18-year-olds). In Nashua, the second most populous municipality, only 13.5% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote (116 registered voters out of an estimated population of 857 18-year-olds). Click the links below to find the number of 18-year-olds registered in your municipality, as reported by the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office on June 10, 2022 and September 21, 2022.

Greatest percentage point increase since June 2022:

The municipalities with the greatest percentage point increase between mid-June and mid-September 2022 are Portsmouth (11.3 percentage points), Lebanon (7.2 percentage points), and Concord (7.1 percentage points).

Rates below 10%:

Keene, Manchester, and Rochester all had registration rates below 10% for 18-year-olds as of September 21, 2022.

Comparisons to other parts of the country:

The registration rates for 18-year-olds in New Hampshire’s most populous municipalities are significantly lower than rates The Civics Center has studied in other parts of the country, with the exception of Wisconsin. These reports are cataloged below in our listing of “Previous Publications from The Civics Center.”

In North Carolina, for example, more than 50% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote in Chatham, Wake, and Charlotte-Mecklenburg Counties. In Broward County, Florida, as early as May 2022, 30% of 18-year olds were already registered to vote. As of October 3, 2022, in the greater Philadelphia area, 27% of youth who will be 18 on Election Day were registered to vote.

VOTER REGISTRATION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR 18-YEAR-OLDS:

For roughly 34,000 people in New Hampshire, the November 8 election will be the first General Election in which they are old enough to vote.

Knowledge of a few key facts about voting in New Hampshire can help new voters as they make their plans for Election Day.

The state allows same-day voter registration on Election Day. Research shows that same-day registration is an important mechanism for increasing youth participation and for improving turnout overall. The New Hampshire Secretary of State publishes a list of polling places here.
If students choose to register prior to Election Day, they may register 6-13 days before the election (depending on the city or town where they reside). With Election Day set for November 8, the earliest of these deadlines is Oct. 27, 2022. Contact information for town clerks can be found here.
To register, it’s best to bring proof of identity, age, citizenship and the physical address (not PO Box) where you live. The New Hampshire Secretary of State’s Office has published guidance on how to navigate the State’s voter registration rules.
Eligible voters without documentation to prove some or all of these attributes can still register and vote, however, by signing an affidavit attesting to the relevant facts. The New Hampshire Department of Justice has provided a helpful explanation here.
The Civics Center, in collaboration with Open Democracy, has developed materials to assist young, first-time voters to understand their options.

THE IMPACT OF HIGH SCHOOL ORGANIZING:

New Hampshire often has close elections, and New Hampshire is among the states in which youth can have the greatest electoral significance in November.

Youth voter registration efforts can build on existing resources and opportunities. New Hampshire is a significant state politically, with high-performing schools, strong local leaders, engaged community organizations, and an early Presidential primary that generates national interest in the state.

The Civics Center’s research demonstrates a significant correlation between organized efforts to promote voter registration in high schools and registration rates for the youngest potential voters. See our reports on Los Angeles County, California (March 2021), and North Carolina and Georgia (September 2022).

Increased attention to voter registration in high schools in New Hampshire can show similar impacts. It is likely that some of the differences in rates among different municipalities is a reflection of the effort by different schools and communities to encourage youth to register and to vote.

OPPORTUNITIES LEADING TO THE NOVEMBER 8, MIDTERM ELECTION:

Students, parents, schools, election officials, local businesses, and community groups can all help teens overcome the barriers they face in registering to vote. All of these groups can ensure that young people understand the importance of voting and the ways in which public issues impact their lives. They can provide accurate information to combat disinformation.

Parents, teachers, community leaders, and students themselves can organize Election Day voting opportunities and car pools before the start of school or at the end of the school day.
School administrators can send election information to students and parents and provide students with documentation showing their enrollment status and home address.
Teachers can demystify the process of voter registration, guide students in navigating the requirements and logistics, and provide meaningful lessons on civics, current events, and the connection to elections.
Election officials can visit high schools and provide outreach to youth and can make sure school administrators are aware of dates and times when students can register and that they know about the opportunity for same-day registration.
Peer-to-peer and school-based organizing can create the social conditions that motivate youth and help to mitigate the impact of legal obstacles. Student leaders can ensure that everyone in their clubs and sports teams who is eligible to vote gets registered and can vote on Election Day.

The Civics Center will be holding workshops and other events through Election Day to train high school students in how to hold voter registration drives and encourage GOTV efforts in their school communities.

Voter registration efforts are likely to have a significant impact on youth turnout. High school voter registration is an effective means of reaching future voters from diverse backgrounds, especially those who may not attend college following graduation.

Four million young people turn 18 every year nationally, and approximately one million high school students are expected to be old enough to vote in November. In New Hampshire 17,000 youth turn 18 every year, and approximately 20% of high school seniors will be old enough to vote in November. High school registration efforts can also reach these seniors, as well as those who graduated in the class of 2021 and 2022, many of whom are not yet registered.

While a comprehensive analysis of the root causes underlying low voter registration rates for the youngest potential voters in New Hampshire and the reasons for the differences in rates among municipalities is beyond the scope of this report, all of these issues deserve further research.

To learn more about how you can help improve youth voter registration, visit https://thecivicscenter.org/volunteer

METHODOLOGY, DATA SOURCES, AND DATA CHALLENGES:

This report builds on a methodology developed by The Civics Center in 2021 for estimating hyper-local and hyper-age-specific registration rates based on official and publicly-available data. New Hampshire is the ninth state in which we have applied our methodology.

The purpose of generating registration estimates at the municipal or school district level for 18-year-olds is that such a metric is critical to organizing and to sparking positive change. For example, such data can overcome feelings of powerlessness. Through such data, students, parents, educators, local officials, and community groups can all recognize that even if some large challenges to our democracy are beyond their control, in fact they can make an immediate and substantial impact in helping the youngest voters gain greater access to voting.

In addition, the availability of objective, nonpartisan, comparative data is helpful for sparking productive conversations with local and school officials regarding how they can improve. The data can also be used to assign accountability. Schools provide an educational and nonpartisan setting in which to provide civics education that creates the motivation and confidence to register and to vote. In addition, most youth turn 18 while they are still in high school, and part of every high school education should be ensuring that every student understands the logistics of how to register and vote. School boards and other local officials are ultimately accountable to their communities, and voter registration and turnout of the youngest voters are two important metrics for assessing whether they are executing their responsibilities for creating the conditions that will prepare all eligible youth to participate fully in public life.

Creating this metric involves overcoming significant data and methodological challenges. There is no single source for obtaining a nationwide measure of voter registration rates for 18-year-olds. Registration data are maintained at the state and local level. State and local officials across the country maintain data in different formats and report data in different ways and at different intervals, depending on state and local laws, regulations, and practices. Unlike in many states, New Hampshire’s publicly available voter file does not include age information. Population data for small jurisdictions, like municipalities and school districts is likewise maintained in different ways by different jurisdictions and may or may not include age variation. The American Community Survey publishes for municipalities and school districts population numbers for youth ages 15-19. The ACS figures include all residents, including noncitizens. We are not aware of any available and generally accepted data source that provides citizen population numbers for 18-year-olds or for youth more generally for local jurisdictions in the U.S.

Our methodology responds to these data limitations in the following ways.

Registration data:

We obtained data on the number of 18-year-olds registered in each municipality through a public records request for aggregate data to the New Hampshire Secretary of State. We obtained and analyzed (1) a NH Secretary of State summary report as of June 10, 2022 reflecting, for each municipality, youth who were age 18 on May 31, 2022, and (2) a NH Secretary of State summary report as of September 21, 2022 reflecting, for each municipality, youth who were age 18 on August 31, 2022.

Population data:

Our population data is based on the American Community Survey local jurisdiction 5-year average, published by the US Census. This survey provides population data for local jurisdictions for youth ages 15-19. We estimated the number of 18-year-olds by dividing the total number of 15- to 19-year-olds by five.

Registration rates:

To estimate registration rates, we divide the number of registered voters by the ACS population estimate for the relevant jurisdiction. The results of this analysis and associated rankings are reflected in the chart above.

Our approach has advantages and limitations.

An advantage is that the data sources are free, easy to understand and to use, and created and maintained by official agencies. Our method is best used for tracking progress over time and for assessing broad disparities, rather than for making definitive comparisons between districts with close results. As additional data sources that can measure citizen population based on narrow age groups become available, we can easily adjust the methods we have developed to use new data sources.

We note the following limitations:

(1) Dividing the number of 15- to 19-year-olds by five is a rough method for estimating the number of 18-year-olds, and margins of error associated with the broader age range may be even greater when estimating for a single age year. For example, due to the mobility of 18-year-olds and the presence or absence of colleges in different jurisdictions, dividing the number of 15- to 19-year-olds by five is an inherently imperfect method for estimating the population of that age in a particular municipality. Because of these factors, we have a higher level of confidence in our estimate of the statewide registration rate for 18-year-olds than for the estimates for smaller jurisdictions. That said, the variations we see between and among smaller jurisdictions are similar to what we have seen through this method across the country and the rates we calculate for smaller jurisdictions appear reasonable based on the state-wide rate.

(2) Because ACS data for small jurisdictions reflect the age-based population as a whole, and does not measure citizen population specifically, local jurisdictions with higher rates of noncitizenship will tend to have lower registration rates than if we had access to population figures that included only citizens.

(3) Our chart above focused only on the ten largest municipalities because population data is more reliable for larger than smaller jurisdictions. Smaller municipalities are a priority for further study as reliable age-based population data sources become available. To see the raw numbers of 18-year-olds registered in all New Hampshire jurisdictions, see the links provided on page 3, above.

We do not believe that any of these limitations is so significant as to distract from our key findings. Registration rates for 18-year-olds in New Hampshire are exceptionally low, forecasting the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of New Hampshire’s youngest potential voters. Local leaders – students, parents, and educators – can all play an enormous role in addressing this issue and ensuring that the State’s youth can participate fully and equally in our democracy. In addition, despite these limitations, our method provides an effective way of tracking individual municipalities and the state as a whole over time and for comparing increases and decreases in registration rates for the youngest voters.

ABOUT LAURA BRILL:

Laura W. Brill is the Founder and Executive Director of The Civics Center. Recognized as among the top appellate lawyers in California, Ms. Brill served as a law clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Ms. Brill speaks and writes widely on issues relating to law, policy, leadership, and organizing, especially as they relate to voting rights and political empowerment.

PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS FROM THE CIVICS CENTER:

The Civics Center is a national nonpartisan, nonprofit organization aiming to increase high school voter registration and civic engagement through education, ideas, and calls to action. The following publications provide additional information and data regarding registration and pre-18 registration across the country:

L.W. Brill, 30+% Increase in Voter Registration for 18-Year-Olds in Greater Philadelphia Area in Just One Month (October 2022)

M. Pino & V. Shapiro, Introducing Students to Our Democracy: A Case Study of Compliance with Youth Voter Registration laws in Georgia and North Carolina (September 2022)

L.W. Brill, 40%+ increase in Voter Registration for 18-year-olds in Greater Philadelphia Area (September 2022)

L. W. Brill, Hey, Pennsylvania: Register to Vote (August 2022)

L. W. Brill, In Florida, with Midterms just five months away, the biggest obstacle to youth voter turnout is low levels of voter registration among youngest eligible voters (Jun. 12, 2022)

L.W. Brill, J.F. Wenz & L Polise, In Ohio, where youth could decide the US Senate race, fewer than 25% of 18-year-olds in the state’s largest counties are registered to vote (Mar. 29, 2022)

L.W. Brill & J.F. Wenz, Wisconsin: Fewer than 1,500 youth in Milwaukee and Dane Counties are registered to vote. New research shows an urgent need for high school voter registration (Feb. 28, 2022)

L.W. Brill & J.F. Wenz, In Pennsylvania school districts, most 18-year-olds are not registered to vote ahead of 2022 midterm elections (Jan. 4, 2022)

L.W. Brill, L. Reddy & V.C. Shapiro, Low Voter Registration Rates Among Teens Threaten To Depress Youth Voter Turnout in 2022 Midterm Elections (Dec. 16, 2021)

L.W. Brill, Research Report: In Arizona’s two largest counties, fewer than 15% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote (Dec. 1, 2021)

A. Reff, The CA Gubernatorial Runoff’s Low Impact on Youth Preregistration Rates (Oct. 26, 2021)

L.W. Brill, Stop Being Invisible (Sept. 27, 2021)