Pennsylvania Prediction: 18-Year-Olds Will Vote at Higher Rates Than in 2022
What matters most is what you do to encourage young Pennsylvanians to register (before the state deadline on October 19) and to vote on November 3.
I’d like to make a confession. I hate predictions. Especially about elections. They are a distraction. They ignore our own capacity for meaningful action, as if the most important question is what is likely, as opposed to what shall we do?
Especially because today is just one week until Pennsylvania’s voter registration deadline, the number-one thing I want us all to be thinking about is action, not probabilities. What shall we do? What actions can and will we take to promote robust turnout and contribute to an election that is free and fair for everyone? How about this:
Remind your friends in Pennsylvania that their state registration deadline is October 19, and registration rates for 18-year-olds have been among the lowest of any state we’ve been tracking at The Civics Center. At the same time, things are moving up and can still move even more!
Our most recent PA data (with registrations through September 27, 2026) show that 27% of 18-year-olds are registered statewide. That’s a low rate overall compared with other states we’re tracking, but it represents an impressive 5 percentage point gain from where the numbers stood in July, just two months earlier. Five points is a major increase in just two months.
And since today’s post is all about predicting whether 18-year-olds will turn out in PA at a higher rate then they did in the 2022 midterms, the point I want to emphasize is that the September 2026 rate is 6 percentage points above the rate we saw back in September 2022, which was just 21%. With registration running 6 percentage points higher statewide this year compared to 2022, it’s reasonable to predict turnout will be higher, as well.
Why we’re confident in our prediction
In addition to the fact that more of Pennsylvania’s 18-year-olds are registered than they were in 2022, our prior reports detailed that in 2024, higher registration rates among 18-year-olds in PA counties had a strong positive correlation with turnout among those who were registered. We saw the same phenomenon in Ohio and New York, as illustrated here.
We’re not saying there’s a causation effect necessarily, but when more 18-year-olds in a community are registered, more of them know an election is coming and can encourage one another to turn out.
In addition, as we reported back in May, in PA, registered 18-year-olds have turned out at rates close to older voters in recent presidential elections (above 80% in both 2020 and 2024) and at reasonably strong rates in midterms (above 60% in both 2018 and 2022).
Because registration rates are running higher than they were in 2022, if turnout among the registered is at, above, or even a bit below where it was in 2022, we’ll see more 18-year-olds turning out in PA than we did in 2022.
The local angle and what’s at stake
There’s a lot on the ballot in PA this November. There’s every Congressional seat, the Governor’s race, ½ of the seats in the state Senate, and all of the seats in the state House.
As in past years, we see enormous variation within the state. That includes some school districts making extraordinary gains over 2022, and others losing ground.
Hats off to Philadelphia for moving up 16.7 percentage points from September 2022 to September 2026. And to Pittsburgh for moving up 18 percentage points in the same period. Scroll down below for the school district charts to see how your favorite district is doing.
At The Civics Center, when it comes to Pennsylvania, we answered the question of “what shall we do” three years ago when we started our year-round organizing in the state, and we are seeing that investment – as well as investments of our state and local partner organizations – pay off today. An 18-point gain in a major US city in just 4 years is absolutely phenomenal. I’m especially proud of Pittsburgh, since that’s where we co-lead the Allegheny County Youth Vote Coalition.¹ su Changes like these don’t happen by accident. They happen by organizing.
Even if you didn’t start 3 years ago, there is still time. I focused this post on the great gains since 2022. But the fact remains that as of late last month, closing in on the October 19 registration deadline, only 27% of PA’s 18-year-olds are registered statewide.
That’s just horrible. It’s horrible for the teens who may not get a chance to vote. It’s horrible for the state, which loses their energy and their voices, and it’s horrible for democracy because our systems only work well when we’re all in the game together.
So here is what you can do:
Circulate this post widely.
Tell everyone you know in PA about the upcoming October 19 deadline, the low levels of 18-year-old voter registration and that there is still time to move the rate much higher. Point them to our state resources to get started registering to vote.
Please consider a donation. The Civics Center’s work in PA, across the country, and and our data and reporting are only possible with gifts from our supporters.
I have a predication about what can happen if you do all these things: Higher youth registration, higher turnout, and a stronger democracy for all.
¹ Shout out to our partners in the Allegheny Youth Vote Coalition: Coalition members include The Civics Center, PA Youth Vote, League of Women Voters of Greater Pittsburgh, The Black Political Empowerment Project, the Pittsburgh Alumnae Chapter of Delta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., The Pittsburgh Chapter of The Links, Inc., The Women and Girls Foundation, VoteRiders, Pennsylvanians for Modern Courts, and The Urban League of Greater Pittsburgh. The Coalition previously held Youth Vote Huddles in March 2024. September 2024, and October 2025, as well as a Youth Vote Block Party in April 2026 to celebrate first time student voters.