Youth turnout in 2026 - Here’s what we already know about the youngest voters.Including a comparative view of the youngest voters in NH, VA, and MI.
With the 2025 election now behind us, it’s time to ask, will young people turn out in 2026 and 2028? The best answer I can give is: It depends.
It depends on a lot of things:
whether the election is competitive or not, with candidates talking about the issues that matter to young people - think high youth turnout in NY’s Mayoral election versus many other local elections;
whether state laws make it easy to register and to vote; and
whether schools and other governmental agencies and community / civil society organizations help young people register and vote and understand what is at stake.
Most of us can’t do much about the first point. It’s up to the parties and candidates to emerge and take on this role. But understanding the second two points can make all the difference in helping all stakeholders, including young people themselves, understand the obstacles to youth turnout so they can get involved in overcoming them.
The national picture
On average in this century, fewer than 30% of 18-year-olds are registered to vote in midterms. That’s based on Census data, and the average registration rate for 18-year-olds is under half in presidential elections. In 2024, only 44% of 18-year-olds were registered. This means more than 2 million 18-year-olds are left out in both presidential elections and midterms in every cycle, simply because they are not registered. That’s compared to ~75% for Americans ages 45 and above.
Young people who are registered turn out at high rates in big elections. In every presidential election going back to 2004, more than 75% of registered youth ages 18-24 turned out.
States
Turnout varies widely by state, and this can be a function of variations in competitiveness and the money candidates and campaigns spend on races in different states, as well as variations in state laws as well as cultural norms and traditions of participation, among other factors. In Arkansas, only 53% of adult citizens turned out in 2024 based on Census data. At the high end 76% of adult citizens voted in Minnesota.
As it relates to the youngest voters, those who have just turned 18, often the most significant laws that influence turnout are those directed to voter registration. Since young people in the US start out entirely unregistered and have to take affirmative steps to get onto the rolls in every state except North Dakota, laws governing registration can act as a major hurdle, blocking young people out.
Restrictions can relate to timing, such as short or long windows to preregister before turning 18, as well as other opportunities to register such as online and automatic registration versus in-person registration requirements.
New Hampshire is the most difficult state in which to register to vote among all states we track. There is no online voter registration or voter registration at the state department of motor vehicles. Instead, new applicants must register to vote in person with an election official. Documentary proof of identity, citizenship, domicile and age are all required to register, each of which is especially complicated for 18-year-olds. In addition, there is only a narrow window in which to accomplish all of this between becoming eligible and a first election.
Unlike Michigan and Virginia, and many other states that allow preregistration beginning at age 16 or 17, NH only allows registration for those who will be 18 by the next election. And unlike some states in which the window is effectively two years (starting and stopping aligned with even year general federal elections), in New Hampshire, the period allows in only those who will be 18 by whatever election is coming up next, which could be a primary or a local election.
The state's one saving grace for young would-be voters has been same-day voter registration, which means, at least when attention is highest, on Election Day itself, young people can go to the polls and get registered there.[1]
Looking at three competitive states from 2024 allows an opportunity to compare the impacts of policy variations on both registration and turnout for the youngest voters.
We measured registration rates for 18-year-olds in all three of these states in the days leading up to the 2024 election and thereafter. The correlation of difference in pre-election registration rates for the youngest voters is pretty stunning.
Large numbers of New Hampshire youth registered with same-day registration. But, significantly, the number was not enough to fully close the gap with states like Michigan and Virginia. New Hampshire ended up 8.4 points behind Virginia, and more than 20 points behind Michigan, in the voter registration rates for 18-year-olds, even though all states allow new voters to register at the polls on Election Day. This disparity existed even though the presidential election in NH was one of the tightest in the country, and ended up being decided by a narrower percentage point margin than in Virginia.
Registration rates for 18-year-olds in New Hampshire also trailed far behind rates for older voters in the state by nearly 20 percentage points. 82.2% of NH residents ages 45 and above are registered to vote, based on Census data. About 10,000 18-year-olds were registered,[2] leaving out nearly 6,000 who were old enough to register but did not do so. If 18-year-olds in NH were registered at the same rate as Granite staters ages 45 and above, that would have added about 3,000 additional NH 18-year-olds to the rolls.
Our Future Voter Scorecard shows NH’s results look like on a county-by-county basis for the youngest voters, with wide variations in registration rates within the state.
The question remains: What are the solutions? Where will the power come from to change New Hampshire law so that young people can participate at high rates. Advocacy is of course one avenue. And another is education and organizing so young people can understand why voting is important, how it impacts their lives, how they can participate in their communities both through voting and beyond, and what they can do about it.
The avenues for high school students and their communities to learn together and to make a difference are enormous. The Civics Center has been working in New Hampshire for three years with Open Democracy to make this a reality.
Together and with the support of the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation, we hosted our 3rd statewide annual convening last month to bring together students, educators, partner organizations, volunteers and election officials to receive training on how to run effective voter registration efforts in the Granite state. We’ll be working through the next year to support teens and educators in spearheading voter registration drives, engaging their local election officials, educating eligible students on the importance of registering to vote and preparing to meet the ID requirements – all with workshops conveniently scheduled virtually and in-person before local elections and the 2026 midterms.
The point is that even in the hardest states, meeting young people where they are and educating the adults around them can be a starting point for change. It builds leadership among students, and it’s their right to vote, after all. It helps to raise awareness about the need to register, the obstacles and requirements. Students, families and schools who face a frustratingly complex set of requirements that are disenfranchising young NH youth can all begin to ask a simple question: We have a right to vote; why is our state making it so hard?
1. At the time of the 2024 election, those registering at the poll were able to sign an affidavit, attesting to their eligibility to register and vote, rather than needing to provide documentary proof. That mechanism was eliminated as part of HB 1569, which also requires new registrants to provide documentary proof of US citizenship. HB 1569, went into effect after the 2024 election and now faces a legal challenge. For a recent report on the impact of HB 1569 and claims that it disenfranchises otherwise-eligible NH voters, see this piece from the New Hampshire Bulletin.
2. Data for Nov. 5, 2024 reported as of 1/13/2025. Final data may vary somewhat due to late additions by local officials.